The dismal decade (Part 7: Seven forces shaping 2030 #4) Phuah Eng Chye (27 July 2024) Force #4 – Global imbalances and anorexic economies China’s industrial domination and its threat to West For decades, the hyper-globalised partnership of “China produces and US consumes” drove economic growth but this culminated in massive global imbalances. Michael Pettis … “The dismal decade (Part 7: Seven forces shaping 2030 #4)”
Tag: Phuah Eng Chye
The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3)
The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3) Phuah Eng Chye (29 June 2024) In my final articles for the blog, I have taken up the challenge of sketching out transitional scenarios to 2030. In this context, this decade stands out as a landmark for the global reset. The decade opened with … “The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3)”
The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks)
The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks) Phuah Eng Chye (27 April 2024) In June 2023, Nomura Research’s Richard C. Koo[1] warned that China’s real estate malaise were symptoms of the potential Japanification of its economy. Richard C. Koo cautioned “China was likely to enter a balance sheet recession and needed to take … “The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks)”
The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030)
The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030) Phuah Eng Chye (30 March 2024) Where it once appeared inevitable, it is no longer a certainty that China will be able to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy (in nominal terms) in 2030. Most agree China’s peak real … “The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030)”
The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring)
The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring) Phuah Eng Chye (24 February 2024) China is considered Pax America’s most formidable challenger ever. A US House of Representative report[1] points out “the CCP’s economic ambitions have taken a severe toll on American workers and companies: In 1978, when the PRC began … “The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring)”
The dismal decade (Part 2: Adversarial monetary policies)
The dismal decade (Part 2: Adversarial monetary policies) Phuah Eng Chye (27 January 2024) Throughout its hegemonic reign, the USD faced off currency challengers such as sterling, yen and euro which were unable to maintain their economic rankings. With the rise of China, for the first time the US faces a challenger with a population … “The dismal decade (Part 2: Adversarial monetary policies)”