The dismal decade (Part 8: Seven forces shaping 2030 #5) Phuah Eng Chye (31 August 2024) Force #5 – Monetary geopolitics and the Fed policy transition This is my third article focusing on monetary issues in “The dismal decade” series. The first covered “De-dollarisation and currency landscape in 2030” and the second “Adversarial monetary policies”. … “The dismal decade (Part 8: Seven forces shaping 2030 #5)”
The dismal decade (Part 7: Seven forces shaping 2030 #4)
The dismal decade (Part 7: Seven forces shaping 2030 #4) Phuah Eng Chye (27 July 2024) Force #4 – Global imbalances and anorexic economies China’s industrial domination and its threat to West For decades, the hyper-globalised partnership of “China produces and US consumes” drove economic growth but this culminated in massive global imbalances. Michael Pettis … “The dismal decade (Part 7: Seven forces shaping 2030 #4)”
The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3)
The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3) Phuah Eng Chye (29 June 2024) In my final articles for the blog, I have taken up the challenge of sketching out transitional scenarios to 2030. In this context, this decade stands out as a landmark for the global reset. The decade opened with … “The dismal decade (Part 6: Seven forces shaping 2030 #1- #3)”
The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks)
The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks) Phuah Eng Chye (27 April 2024) In June 2023, Nomura Research’s Richard C. Koo[1] warned that China’s real estate malaise were symptoms of the potential Japanification of its economy. Richard C. Koo cautioned “China was likely to enter a balance sheet recession and needed to take … “The dismal decade (Part 5: China and Japanification risks)”
The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030)
The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030) Phuah Eng Chye (30 March 2024) Where it once appeared inevitable, it is no longer a certainty that China will be able to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy (in nominal terms) in 2030. Most agree China’s peak real … “The dismal decade (Part 4: The economic race: Can China catch US by 2030)”
The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring)
The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring) Phuah Eng Chye (24 February 2024) China is considered Pax America’s most formidable challenger ever. A US House of Representative report[1] points out “the CCP’s economic ambitions have taken a severe toll on American workers and companies: In 1978, when the PRC began … “The dismal decade (Part 3: The economic race: How US is faring)”